Enphase matters. They’re making money, they’ve got good looking gear, and there might just be an ace up their sleeve. On December 12, the company hosted institutional investors and financial analysts in their annual Analyst Day presentations.
Much of the presentation was of course financial information. The company noted whole year revenue was projected at $619 million in 2019, with operating income at $122 million. These values were up 96% and 495% year on year. They’re hoping to expand to 8 new European countries in 2020, doubling revenue from the continent in the year.
Based upon a combination of estimates from third parties, Enphase sees the global residential “serviceable available market” (SAM) expanding from $2.5 billion this year, to $4 billion in 2022. When adding in residential storage, small commercial solar, and offgrid solar and storage the company projects their SAM to grow from $3.3 billion to $12.5 billion by 2022. A recent analysis by Wood Mackenzie Renewables & Power suggested their products were installed on 19% of residential rooftops year to date.
The group will ramp their Mexico facilities from 500k to 1 million unit per quarter, reaching a quarterly capacity of 3.5 million microinverters and 120 MWh of energy storage by Q4’20. They estimate spending $25 million in capital expenditures to achieve this.
There was much talk regarding the Ensemble family, which encompasses the whole of the hardware the company now offers, as well the soon to launch grid forming microinverter – the IQ8. The main components of an Enphase installation are the microinverters on the backside of the modules, the IQ combiner which brings all those module wires together before plugging them into the house. The full on Ensemble 2.0 suite includes IQ8 inverters, an Enpower Switch which sits between the home and the power grid, as well the energy storage solution which is wired directly to the switch. All items are wirelessly connected.
There was also chatter of a commercial market focused three phase IQ 8D solar power inverter. The unit is rated at 640Wac, and can handle two 400W solar modules. Enphase analyst TJ Roberts, suggested the unit would 208V at 3.08A, could cost $100-150/unit (15¢-23/Wac), and per the images of the integrated circuit shown in the below image, the hardware has been in development since sometime in 2017.
It would be quite an interesting proposal to offer IQ8’s ability to keep running when the grid is down, without having to add in energy storage.
Lastly, the company showed off their “Ensemble in a box” which allows two solar modules to be connected into a case that includes energy storage, inverters, and plugs to power things. The company noted the hardware was focused on the Indian market where energy poverty is a true societal challenge.
The below left image is of the unit sitting in on a table between a water pump on the left, and a “cheap room cooling device” (not an air conditioner) in the darkened room to the right. The two white boxes on the front side of the orange box face are standard plugs. The graphic on the right shows the unit as a whole, with a cross section of the internals. The unit includes an IQ8 specifically noted as useful in a market with inconsistent electricity availability.
Enphase noted this unit as a $4 billion opportunity by 2022. With $2 billion of it being supporting the water pump market, $1.5 billion as standalone systems and another $500 million for mitigating extreme heat.
