Before we cover the full analysis we make a quick alert here that Energizer Holdings Inc (NYSE:ENR) has seen its stock price move at a substantially lowered level. We’ll go through the details below — but that’s the lede — the stock has been unusally quiet. If there was a post it note to summarize the stock movement in the last 30-days it would likely read “quiet time… too quiet?” The HV20 is 21.73% verus the HV20 of the S&P 500 at 8.5%.
Another bit to this alert of quiet time, which we cover in the article, is that while the historical volatility may be a substantially lowered level, the real question that needs to be answered for option traders is not if the HV20 is low, but rather if the implied volatility that is priced for the next 30-days accuratley reflects what we’re about to see in the stock for the next month.
Preface
This is a proprietary realized volatility rating created by Capital Market Laboratories (CMLviz) based on a large number of data interactions for Energizer Holdings Inc (NYSE:ENR) . We examine the little used gem of daily stock volatility over a 20-day and 30-day trading period, as well as comparisons to the last year and the actual stock returns over the last three- and six-months and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices.
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As a heads up, in the “Why This Matters” section at the end of this article on Energizer Holdings Inc (NYSE:ENR) , we’re going to take a step back and show really clearly that there is actually a lot less “luck” in successful option trading than most people are aware of. This idea of an “option trading expert” is vastly over complicated so those with the information advantage can continue to profit at the expense of the rest.
But before that, let’s turn back to ENR. Here are the exact steps that led us to this rating, and whether it’s a risk alert or a holding pattern.
Rating
Price volatility using proprietary measures has hit a substantially lowered level. While stocks with ENR’s profile see a short-term quiet period, this is also one of those times when a shake out volatility move could be on the horizon. To that point, we do note that ENR is showing unusally low volatility in the last month relative to its past. Let’s take a deep dive into some institutional level volatility measures for Energizer Holdings Inc (NYSE:ENR) .
Energizer Holdings Inc Stock Performance
ENR is up +10.9% over the last three months and up +25.8% over the last six months. The stock price is up +37.3% over the last year. The current stock price is $64.89.
ENR Step 1: Stock Returns
The one-year stock return does not impact the volatility rating since we are looking at a shorter time horizon. However, the rating does examine the 3-month returns and the absolute difference between the 3-month and 6-month returns.
The 3-month stock return of +10.9% has a small impact on the price volatility rating for ENR.
The greater than 10% difference between the 3-month and 6-month stock returns has an impact on the price volatility rating for ENR.
ENR Step 2: Daily Price Volatility Level
The HV30® takes the stock’s day to day historical volatility over the last 30-days and then annualizes it. The HV20 looks back over just 20-days — a shorter time period. Here is the breakdown for Energizer Holdings Inc (NYSE:ENR) and how the day-by-day price historical volatilities have impacted the rating:
The HV20 of 21.7% is low enough that it has a downward impact on ENR’s volatility rating.
ENR Step 3: Energizer Holdings Inc HV20 Compared to Indices
* The HV20 for ENR is greater than that for both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 which has a small impact on the volatility rating.
* The HV20 for ENR is substantially larger than that for the Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) which raises the volatility rating.
ENR Step 4: Daily Volatility Percentiles and Highs
We also examine the annual high of the HV30 in our rating.
The 52 week high in HV30 for ENR is 57.4%, which is just high enough to have a small impact on the price volatility rating.
Final Price Volatility Percentile Level: ENR
The final evolution of the volatility rating for Energizer Holdings Inc is a comparison of the HV30 value relative to its past, which is neatly summarized in the percentile — a scoring mechanism that goes from a low of 1 to a high of 100.
The HV30 percentile for Energizer Holdings Inc is 14%, which means the stock has seen very low volatility in its price movement relative to its own past and that has a dampening impact on the price volatility rating.
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