Battery Metals

In a forward thinking move, the South Metropolitan TAFE on behalf of the Future Battery Industries Cooperative Research Centre (FBICRC) has cooperated with 70 participants across government, industry, and research to analyse and assess the vocational skills gaps that need to be filled in order to prepare the workforce of the future. 

The FBICRC asked South Metro TAFE WA to conduct the skills gap analysis because South Metro TAFE manages most of the engineering and automotive fields. They were most familiar with the content, although North Metro has a good background in automation and software. The FRICRC report states:

Battery value chain industries were analysed from mining through to refining and processing, battery cell manufacturing, battery energy storage system (BESS) manufacturing, BESS deployment, electric vehicle servicing, electric vehicle supply equipment manufacturing and installation and lithium-ion battery recycling.

Although many training packages remain current, the nature of future batteries in terms of their chemistry, the purity of the materials required, the new technologies required for production as well as the new technologies they represent and enable, means that there are areas where new vocational skills and knowledge are needed.

“This plan represents an important foundational step to creating employment pathways to deliver financial prosperity for our young people,” said the FBICRC’s new Chief Executive Officer Shannon O’Rourke.

The Government of Western Australia writes:

The analysis found most skills needed by workers in future battery industries are covered by current TAFE (Technical and Further Education) packages, but identified some new training units were required to cater for new jobs. These include:

• skills to maintain automation systems;
• artificial intelligence and big data;
• electrical and mechanical skills;
• skills for first responders, electricians and mechanics trained in electric vehicles and battery energy storage systems; and
• new skills for recycling facility workers in the safe handling of lithium-ion batteries.

[…]

With demand for batteries set to increase 10-fold in the next decade, the plan identifies which national training package qualifications cover the vocational skills and knowledge needed in Australia’s future battery industries.

Future Battery Industries adds:

The FBICRC’s portfolio of 15 research projects span the battery value chain and brings together 70 industry participants, the federal government, four state governments in WA, QLD, SA and NT and eight universities who represent a collective investment worth more than $120 million over six years.

Although it is difficult to forecast the demand for workers in the emerging battery industry, it is expected that it may be a challenge to attract workers from mining and oil and gas industries to move into battery refining, processing, and precursor production.

Readers may like to refer to a webinar hosted by Australian Electric Vehicles Association where there is a discussion about the skills gap. The webinar is with Shannon O’Rourke and Graham Cawley from the MTA WA (an industry group stakeholder and also a large private RTO who trains apprentices in the automotive world).

This preparation of the workforce aligns with Western Australia’s determination to move up the value chain from exporting raw materials to actually producing the battery end products.

Not every solar power system has a solar battery attached. In fact, only about 4% of residential solar installations had a battery backup in 2020, though the numbers are climbing quickly. Many solar power systems instead send electricity into a home without any on-site solar energy storage. At that point, through a connection to the conventional power grid, the solar power system “sells back” extra energy to the power company. At night, these grid-connected systems just draw on conventional electricity, buying it from the power company.

Adding a battery system allows for two main benefits. First, it gives homeowners the ability to draw on battery power during hours when the power company is selling electricity at a higher rate, called peak hours, if they use “Time of Use” pricing (PDF).

Peak hours are often the weekdays when the most people are home and using electricity, often around 8-10 a.m. and 6-8 p.m. on weekdays. Secondly, a battery backup allows you to avoid interruptions in electricity if the power grid is out or at night.

While battery systems add to the cost of a solar power installation, these benefits can also defray the costs. To learn more about whether solar batteries are a good fit for you, it helps to understand how they work.

How solar batteries work

When your home doesn’t need all the energy being produced by your solar panels, the excess energy is stored in the battery. When the solar panels aren’t generating enough energy to fill the power needs of the building, the battery discharges reserve power to make up the difference.

Solar batteries typically contain two materials, which react inside the battery in order to both store and discharge electricity — lead acid, an older and cheaper type, and lithium ion, the most popular type of solar batteries currently.

The way you configure your solar battery system affects how it works. You have three main options:

• Connect your solar panels to only a solar battery system, filling and discharging it frequently in response to the times without sun that you still want electricity. This is useful when in an area that is “off-grid,” away from electrical utilities.
• Connect your solar panels to a solar battery system and to the grid (PDF). You can choose to fill your battery and just keep it as a backup, rarely discharging it, and mostly selling and buying excess electricity from the electric company.
• If you live in an area where electricity rates vary with the time of day, you can configure your system to use battery backup at the most expensive times and to buy electricity from the grid at the least expensive times. 

Eventually, batteries lose their ability to efficiently react and store energy for future use. Solar battery manufacturers often offer warranties or guarantees to build your confidence in how long these products will work, but their lifespan can vary widely depending on different factors.

A bit about inverters

Inverters play an important role in how the battery stores and converts solar energy. While solar panels generate electricity in direct current, or DC, the electric grid and homes generally use alternating current, or AC. An inverter can convert AC to DC or vice versa, and most solar batteries include an inverter to store the energy in DC form, as well as an inverter to convert it back into AC to be used in the grid or the home.

Because inversion of current is not perfectly efficient, battery producers are always experimenting with how to invert less often and increase the efficiency of the battery. As a result, some batteries will not have inverters for both input and output included in the system. Talk to your solar installer about the battery system you’re considering so that you can make sure you have all the external inverters you need.

Final thoughts

Solar power is only available for part of the day. Adding a solar power storage battery system ensures you always have power when the sun isn’t out. Solar batteries are designed to work for many years, but they do eventually lose efficiency and stop working, usually before the lifespan of a solar panel, which often last 25-40 years. 

A professional solar electricity system installer can help you select a battery that works well with your goals, whether you want to be entirely off-grid, have an emergency store for outages or minimize your costs from the electric company during peak hours. 

A 20MWh vanadium redox flow battery (VRFB) project is being developed for construction at the site of an existing natural gas peaker plant in California, by South Korea’s H2 Inc.

H2 said earlier this week that development work has kicked off on what looks likely to be the US’ biggest VRFB project so far, at 5MW output and 20MWh capacity, larger than the 2MW / 8MWh system deployed in 2017 by Japan’s Sumitomo Electric Industries for California utility San Diego Gas & Electric (SDG&E) and another of similar size in Washington State.

Members of the H2-led consortium developing the project include a Korean state-run generation company and one of the country’s national research institutes, with the Korean government financially backing it, the flow battery company claimed.

Expected to be fully operational and participating in market opportunities on the California power grid by the end of 2023 after a pilot phase, battery modules will be pre-assembled by H2 using its EnerFLOW VRFB brand technology.

Everything from software to electro-chemistry and mechanical and electrical engineering will be done in-house by the company, which hopes to expand nationwide into the US market once the success of the project has been proven.

It’s interesting to see that despite the long-duration capabilities of VRFBs and their ability to scale to host high energy capacity, the system is planned to be four-hours duration, which at present is the most common configuration for the more common lithium-ion batteries that are being deployed all over California. A four-hour 100MW lithium-ion battery project at the site of Alamitos gas plant in the state went online the first day of 2021, and was the first time batteries went up against natural gas to supply peaking capacity for a utility company in the US and won.

However, H2 said the Korean government will be looking closely at the new project to see if flow batteries can be an answer to renewables integration challenges back home, not least of all because confidence in South Korea’s BESS market was badly dented three years ago by a spate of fires at hastily-deployed industrial battery projects.

VRFBs store energy in liquid electrolyte tanks and do not have cells that can go into thermal runaway and potentially cause fires, as lithium-ion batteries do — albeit rarely.

“California is a perfect testbed for large-scale VRFB to replace traditional gas peakers taking great majority of power generation in the state. Since California is a frontrunner in carbon neutrality movements to overcome global climate change, 20MWh VRFB project is going to be a significant milestone for many states in the US and other following regions with similar targets,” H2 Inc founder and CEO Dr Shin Han said.

“This monumental project will show how VRFB is able to substitute for fossil-fuelled power plants and optimise power grids crowded with increasing renewable energy.”

It’s unlikely however to remain California’s biggest flow battery for long — in November Energy-Storage.news reported that energy supplier Central Coast Community Energy (CCCE) had announced four new grid-scale battery projects including three flow battery systems ranging from 6MW / 18MWh to 16MW / 128MWh, totalling 226MWh of eight-hour duration energy storage paired with solar PV plants. Those are expected to be operational in 2026.

In October, H2 Inc raised US$15 million through a Series B funding round, bringing the company’s total funds raised since its founding 11 years ago to US$38 million. H2’s 1.1MWh flow battery system in Ulsan, South Korea, is the country’s only non-lithium battery installation to be receiving renewable energy credits (RECs).

ESS Inc iron flow batteries to be used in California microgrid

Also in the last few days, iron electrolyte flow battery provider ESS Inc has announced its involvement in a microgrid project for California utility San Diego Gas & Electric (SDG&E).

ESS Inc told Energy-Storage.news that a system with a nominal rating of 450kW and peak power output of 540kW and an energy capacity of 3MWh is being deployed for the California town of Cameron Corners.

The six-hour duration energy storage system (ESS) will be combined with onsite solar PV to create the zero-emissions microgrid, supporting critical community resources such as a health centre and fire station with back up power.

When not being used to provide local resiliency, the system will be able to play into California wholesale energy market opportunities and earn revenues for supporting the grid with balancing services.

It’s the latest California microgrid project to use flow batteries to enable several hours of backup power: Anglo-American vanadium flow battery provider Invinity has bagged a handful of similar projects, with support from the California Energy Commission.

ESS Inc CEO Eric Dresselhuys was among industry leaders participating in Energy-Storage.news‘ year in review 2021 interview blog series. Read his thoughts on 2021 and what the future holds for energy storage here.

Tesla Inc. has agreed to take the majority of battery-ready graphite from a production facility planned in Louisiana, as it races to secure supplies of the key material in a market dominated by China.

Melbourne-based Syrah Resources Ltd. will supply Elon Musk’s company with graphite anode material for an initial four years, with an option to buy additional volumes subject to further expansion at Syrah’s Vidalia plant, the Australian company said in a statement. The Louisiana facility is planned to process graphite from Mozambique to become the first U.S.-based source of graphite anodes for the country’s fast-growing electric vehicle and lithium-ion battery manufacturing industry.

The deal with Tesla would help underpin a final investment decision on the production plant expected next month and help secure local supply, Syrah’s Managing Director Shaun Verner said by telephone. China produces almost all of the graphite used in producing materials for anodes, demand for which is forecast to increase fivefold by the end of the decade, according to BloombergNEF.

“Such concentration poses a risk to rivals looking to build domestic battery supply chains, such as the U.S. and Europe,” BNEF said in a Dec. 2 report.

Earlier this month, Tesla asked the US government to waive tariffs on graphite from China, saying it couldn’t access enough of the material from elsewhere. Vidalia’s initial 10,000 ton-a-year production rate would be able to supply about 3% of U.S.-based battery demand by 2025, according to industry estimates cited in a Syrah presentation.

The top battery and EV manufacturers are scouring the planet to secure supplies of battery materials such as lithium, cobalt, nickel and graphite as the global push toward a greener future fires up demand at a time of constrained supply exacerbated by the pandemic. Tesla in July struck a major nickel offtake deal with BHP Group, the world’s biggest mining company.

Syrah will supply Vidalia with graphite from its Balama operation in Mozambique, which was restarted in March after being suspended in 2020 due to impacts from Covid-19. The long-term plan is to expand output at Vidalia to a minimum 40,000 tons per annum by the middle of the decade, Verner said.

Syrah’s shares jumped as much as 35% on Thursday following the announcement — the most since March 2020 — before being placed on a trading halt pending a statement from the company on further information regarding the announcement.

The United States has enough reserves of lithium, copper and other metals to build millions of its own electric vehicles (EVs), but rising opposition to new mines may force the country to rely on imports and delay efforts to electrify the nation’s automobiles.

The tension underscores the dilemma facing the United States going into 2022, a year in which US policymakers hope to see groundbreakings on a raft of EV manufacturing facilities from Ford Motor Co, General Motors Co and others.

President Joe Biden signaled earlier this year he prefers to rely on allies for EV metals, part of a strategy designed to placate environmentalists. That means US automakers will find themselves competing with international rivals for supply amid the global rush to electrification.

US metals imports, though, could boost greenhouse gas emissions by increasing shipping from overseas mines to processing facilities, most of which are in Asia, thus abrogating part of the rationale behind building more EVs.

A Reuters analysis found that proposed US mining projects could produce enough copper to build more than 6 million EVs, enough lithium to build more than 2 million EVs and enough nickel to build more than 60,000 EVs.

The estimates are based on the volume of minerals used to make a Tesla Inc Model 3, the world’s most popular EV, according to a study by Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. Other types of EV use different amounts, depending on design.

“If we don’t start getting some mining projects under construction this coming year, then we will not have the raw materials domestically to support EV manufacturing,” said James Calaway, executive chairman of ioneer Ltd.

Biden in August issued an executive order aimed at making half of all new vehicles sold in 2030 electric.

Washington so far has offered confusing guidance to its mining industry. For example, the US Fish and Wildlife Service is poised to label a rare flower found on a handful of acres at ioneer’s Nevada lithium mine site as endangered, a step that could impede permitting. At the same time, the US Department of Energy is deciding whether to lend the company more than $300 million to build the mine.

Opposition

Other proposed mines face opposition from indigenous groups, ranchers or environmentalists, underscoring the broader tension in the United States as resistance to living near a mine clashes with the potential of EVs to mitigate climate change.

In early 2022, federal judges are set to rule in two separate cases as to whether mine approvals granted by former President Donald Trump to Lithium Americas Corp and Rio Tinto Plc should be reversed.

In Minnesota, state regulators are weighing whether permits issued to PolyMet Mining Corp , which is controlled by mining giant Glencore Plc, should be revoked or reissued. PolyMet’s mine would become a major nickel producer just as the only US nickel mine is set to close by 2025.

In North Carolina, Piedmont Lithium Inc’s failure to keep local landowners abreast of its development plans may cost the company necessary local zoning approvals.

Biden himself took steps in October to block Antofagasta Plc’s Twin Metals copper and nickel mine project in Minnesota for 20 years. The proposed underground mine would have become a major US supplier of copper for EVs, which use twice as much of the red metal as vehicles with internal combustion engines.

Despite that step, the White House has been working to highlight its support for certain EV mining projects, including Lithium Americas’ proposed lithium mine – despite Native American opposition – and a California geothermal lithium project funded in part by GM.

The administration also touted a Tesla lithium supply deal with Piedmont, even though that arrangement was put permanently on hold earlier this year.

Many of the mining projects have strong support from labor unions, a constituency that the president has worked to cultivate and one sometimes at odds with environmental groups hoping to block new mines.

Biden’s EV goal “means good-paying union jobs for working people in responsible mining operations that will both supply battery minerals and protect the environment,” said Tom Conway, head of the United Steelworkers, a union that represents some U.S. miners.

Energy transition became a near certainty for automakers in 2021.

The companies were in a wait-and-see mode. No more. Customers made their preferences known, and now automakers are committed to electric vehicles.

In Norway, internal combustion automobile sales declined sharply against EVs. Given trends, EVs should have a 100% share of new car sales by April 2022. Electric vehicle sales in China continued at a breakneck pace. Year-to-date sales are set to close out at 3 million units, up 177.4% compared to the same period in 2020, according to data from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.

Governments are incentivizing energy transition. The European Union plans to phase out combustion-engine cars by 2035. The German government has a target of 15 million electric vehicles on the road by 2030.

With demand in clearer focus, automakers are now spending. In September, Ford Motors charted $30 billion in spending on electric vehicles. It sees EVs making up 40% of its production by the end of the decade. GM is spending $4.6 billion on a joint venture with LG Chem for battery production starting in 2023.

And the Wall Street Journal reported that nine out of 20 new vehicles introduced by Nissan over the next five years would be battery-powered EVs.

In the long term, surging demand is meeting a limited supply of copper, nickel, cobalt, lithium and all the other metals needed for batteries in electric vehicles. But next year, many battery metal prices are expected to cool after a euphoric 2021.

Copper

Copper started the year at $3.50 a pound, but it jumped and spent the fall trading between $4.40 and $4.20. The metal made some all-time highs in 2021. In the spring Goldman Sachs declared the metal is the “new oil” given how fundamental the metal is for energy transition.

Top metal producer Codelco expects copper prices to fall. CEO Octavio Araneda told Reuters that he sees a 9% drop in copper in 2021, saying the market would see surpluses until 2024.

Copper demand will be up in 2022. In October, the International Copper Study Group wrote that refined copper usage is expected to remain essentially unchanged in 2021 and to grow by about 2.4% in 2022.

“[Copper] is essential to economic activity and the modern technological society. Additionally, infrastructure developments in major countries and the global trend towards cleaner energy and electric cars will continue to support copper demand in the longer term,” writes the International Copper Study Group.

Easing concern about copper supply is rising production.

“After three years of remaining essentially unchanged, world copper mine production, adjusted for historical disruption factors, is expected to increase by about 2.1% in 2021 and 3.9% in 2022,” wrote the International Copper Study Group in October.

New mines are coming online notes the ICSG.

“Following a four-year period where only two major copper mines were commissioned, the pipeline of copper mine projects is improving. Major projects starting in 2021/2022 include Kamoa Kakula in the D.R Congo, Quellaveco in Peru, Spence-SGO and Quebrada Blanca QB2 in Chile and Udokan in Russia. A number of medium and small projects are also expected to come on stream.”

Cobalt

Cobalt prices nearly doubled in 2021, starting the year just above $15 pound and now trading near the $30 a pound mark.

Supply chain issues and increased demand will support the metal for the beginning of 2022, but then look for prices to soften, writes S&P Global Market Intelligence in a November note.

Analysts at S&P expect cobalt prices to drop 8.3% in the latter half of 2022 as bottlenecks ease.

However, cobalt demand will continue to grow due to energy transition. There will be substitution and thrifting, which will dampen demand. S&P forecasts that total cobalt demand to rise to 195,000 mt in 2022, up from 132,000 mt in 2020 and an estimated 170,000 mt in 2021.

Nickel

Global finished nickel demand is forecast to grow 15% in 2021 to reach 2.7 million tonnes. Importantly, nickel demand is expected to continue to grow, hitting 2.9 million tonnes in 2022 and 3.0 million tonnes in 2023.

In November, the Australian Government’s Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources released their report on nickel.

Stainless steel still constitutes the majority of global demand for nickel, despite the burgeoning EV sector. Stainless steel production is estimated to increase by 15% year-on-year for 2021, supported by government stimulus spending. However, it is likely to taper towards around 5% a year in 2022 and 2023.

At the same time, DISER said that expectations of future nickel consumption growth are primarily driven by the battery sector.

“Accelerating demand for electric vehicles, as part of government stimulus measures to offset the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, combined with ongoing moves in decarbonization, is driving increased demand for nickel,” the authors of the report noted.

Demand for nickel for batteries is forecast to double over the outlook period, as battery factories come online both inside and outside of China.

By 2050 Glencore expects 3.7 times growth in nickel demand when compared to 2019 levels. Woodmac believes that nickel demand from EVs could quadruple by 2040. The bullish outlook for the metal helped it hit a seven-year-high in 2021.

Indonesia and China have been investing heavily in nickel production, which has dampened prices and outlook for the metal. In December, China’s Tsingshan Holding Group announced that it had officially started producing a type of nickel that was almost ready for use in electric vehicle batteries.

Lithium

Lithium is finishing the year on a strong note.

“Prices for lithium carbonate in the Chinese domestic market see a significant increase in the first half of December, as buyers look to restock inventory ahead of the Spring Festival,” wrote Benchmark Mineral Intelligence in a December note, also observing that lithium hydroxide was up, too.

Both lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices are up sharply with lithium carbonate for batteries up 394% to RMB 200,000 and lithium hydroxide running up 275.3% to RMB 193,000.

“Contacts reported to Benchmark that some Tier 2 and 3 lithium chemical conversion plants will be forced to moderate production in H1 2022 due to a lack of feedstock, indicating a worsening supply-side deficit in the face of exceptional demand,” writes Benchmark.